Defensible Rebuild · Reference Year 2022
Sport Economy Analytics
The core defensible account values South Africa's sport economy at R133.6 billion across 25 traceable lines, with a R74.5 billion confidence-weighted figure. Multipliers are excluded — they require MR-IOT modelling and are never assumed.
Key Indicators
Core defensible Sport Satellite Account
How the original headline reconciles to the core defensible account
Most bicycle-kilometres in SA are commuting, not sport.
The 60% conflated gambling market share with value-added share. Casino, LPMs, bingo and lottery dominate gambling GVA.
Characteristic Connected
Raw GVA vs evidence-weighted GVA (R billions)
39.0% characteristic · 61.0% connected
R52.1 billion
Facilities, clubs, athletes, education
R81.5 billion
Retail, media, betting, tourism, fitness
South Africa's 2.3% sits within the international direct range
The credibility test: a defensible direct estimate should land near peers. SA's 2.3% is comfortably within the UK (2.6%), Germany (2.2%) and EU (2.0%) direct range.
Each line traces to a SIC7 code, a sport share and a confidence tier
| Line | SIC7 | Share | Sport GVA | Weighted | FTE | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Goods & Retail · R33.1 billion | ||||||
| C08 Sport goods retail (dedicated shops) | 47640 | 100% | R18.00B | R12.60B | 90 000 | Medium |
| C09 Sport footwear retail | 47720 | 25% | R3.00B | R1.20B | 15 000 | Low |
| C10 Bicycle & e-bike retail — sport component | 47640 | 35% | R1.23B | R0.49B | 6 125 | Low |
| C11 Wholesale of sport goods | 46490 | 60% | R4.80B | R1.92B | 13 714 | Low |
| C12 Sport goods manufacturing | 32300 | 100% | R2.50B | R1.75B | 8 333 | Medium |
| C15 Sport clothing manufacture | 14190 | 15% | R2.70B | R1.08B | 18 000 | Low |
| C16 Sport footwear manufacture | 15200 | 20% | R0.90B | R0.36B | 5 000 | Low |
| Sport Education · R22.1 billion | ||||||
| E25 Sport & recreation education (non-tertiary) | 85410 | 20% | R9.00B | R3.60B | 40 909 | Low |
| E26 Higher education — sport science | DHET / HEMIS | 5% | R4.25B | R1.70B | 12 143 | Low |
| E27 Secondary education — PE component | DBE / EMIS | 8% | R8.80B | R3.52B | 31 429 | Low |
| Fitness & Health · R17.6 billion | ||||||
| C26 Sport medicine & physiotherapy | 86210 | 3% | R2.55B | R1.02B | 5 100 | Low |
| C27 Fitness facilities (gyms, health clubs) | 93040 | 100% | R15.00B | R10.50B | 100 000 | Medium |
| Sport Media & Betting · R15.2 billion | ||||||
| C19 Sport TV broadcasting | 60200 | 25% | R8.00B | R5.60B | 10 000 | Medium |
| C21 Sport journalism & publishing | 58110 | 5% | R0.60B | R0.24B | 1 500 | Low |
| C22 Sports betting (sport share of gambling) | 92000 | 30% | R6.60B | R2.64B | 18 857 | Low |
| Sport Facilities · R12.0 billion | ||||||
| E21 Operation of sports facilities | 93110 | 100% | R12.00B | R8.40B | 66 667 | Medium |
| Sport Clubs · R8.5 billion | ||||||
| E22 Activities of sports clubs | 93120 | 100% | R8.50B | R5.95B | 70 833 | Medium |
| Other Sporting Activities · R9.5 billion | ||||||
| E23 Other sporting activities NEC | 93190 | 85% | R5.53B | R2.21B | 27 625 | Low |
| E24 Professional sportspersons, coaches & officials | 93190 | 100% | R4.00B | R1.60B | 16 000 | Low |
| Government & Associations · R6.3 billion | ||||||
| C38 Sport associations & federations | 94120 | 100% | R3.50B | R2.45B | 17 500 | Medium |
| C39 Government sport administration | 84110 | 1% | R2.80B | R1.96B | 7 000 | Medium |
| Sport Tourism · R3.7 billion | ||||||
| C23 Sport tourism — hotels & lodging | 55101 | 8% | R2.24B | R0.90B | 12 444 | Low |
| C24 Sport camps & outdoor accommodation | 55200 | 30% | R1.50B | R0.60B | 10 000 | Low |
| Infrastructure & Construction · R3.6 billion | ||||||
| C29 Sport facility construction | 41200 | 3% | R3.60B | R1.44B | 14 400 | Low |
| Equestrian & Racing · R2.0 billion | ||||||
| C40 Equestrian & horse racing (sport component) | 93190 | 80% | R2.00B | R0.80B | 16 667 | Low |
| Core defensible total | R133.6B | R74.5B | 635 246 | |||
The core defensible GVA (R133.6 billion) is the sum of 25 Vilnius-eligible lines. The confidence-weighted GVA (R74.5 billion) applies an evidence-quality weight to each line, so a reader can see how much of the headline rests on strong versus prudent evidence.
Indirect and induced effects (multipliers) are deliberately excluded. They require multi-region input-output modelling and are reported separately rather than assumed as a flat constant.