How the account is built — and what it leaves out
The rebuild replaces a single R155.1bn headline with three transparent registers. Defensible activity is counted; real-but-unmeasured activity is tracked; and ineligible items are removed in plain sight.
Reconciliation: R155.1bn → R133.6bn
Every adjustment is visible and reversible if evidence arrives.
Real activity, indefensible evidence — tracked annually
Not sport per Vilnius 3.0 or no market exists
C10 bicycle 70%→35%; C22 betting 60%→30%
Share corrections
Bicycle retail
Most bicycle-kilometres in SA are commuting, not sport.
−R1.2bn GVA
Sports betting
The 60% conflated gambling market share with value-added share. Casino, LPMs, bingo and lottery dominate gambling GVA.
−R6.6bn GVA
Confidence-weighted view
Each line is weighted by evidence quality. The R133.6 billion core becomes R74.5 billion once weighted — a 44% quality discount.
| Tier | Weight | Lines | Sport GVA | Weighted GVA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium | ×0.7 | 8 | R70.3bn | R49.2bn |
| Low | ×0.4 | 17 | R63.3bn | R25.3bn |
Watch Register
Real activity that fails the evidence test today. Tracked, not counted.
Eliminated Register
Items removed because they fail the Vilnius 3.0 eligibility rules.
Eligibility rules
Vilnius eligibility
The product must be a sport product as defined by the Vilnius 3.0 list.
Multipurpose exclusion
Multipurpose durable goods are excluded unless they are dedicated sport equipment.
No financial services
Insurance, fund management and pensions are outside the satellite account perimeter.
No phantom GVA
No GVA may be asserted where no measurable market exists.
Prudence on shares
Where a sport share is contested, the prudent (lower) share is used until evidenced.
Multipliers and indirect/induced effects are intentionally excluded. They require multi-region input-output (MR-IOT) modelling and are reported separately, never assumed as a flat constant.