What to validate next — ranked by GVA at stake
The account is honest about its weak points. These five actions convert the largest blocks of low-confidence GVA into administered fact, lifting the confidence-weighted figure from R74.5 billion toward 95–105bn.
Obtain NGB gambling statistics by mode; replace the prudent 30% with the evidenced betting share.
Largest single swing in the account; online betting growth post-2022 may move the share up.
AFS special tabulation at SIC 85410 + academy survey to test the 20% share.
R9bn rests on one assumption inside a pure sport code — the largest single LOW-confidence line.
Execute DBE EMIS delivered-PE and DHET HEMIS programme extracts.
R13bn of characteristic GVA moves from placeholder to administered fact — the largest aggregate confidence upgrade available.
QLFS microdata pull at ISCO 3421/3422/3423.
Resolves double-counting with clubs and education; converts the weakest characteristic line.
SARS HS 8712 import-mix analysis + retailer category split.
Tests the prudent 35%; cheap, fast, decisive validation following German precedent.
International comparison
South Africa's 2.3% direct sport-GVA share sits within the established range for mature satellite accounts — a sense-check on the rebuild.
Completing all five priorities raises confidence-weighted GVA from R74.5bn toward R95–105bn.